British Academy: The UK's National Academy for the Humanities and Social Sciences

HUMAN ERROR: CAN WE PREVENT IT?

The 36th British Academy Conversazione

Professor James Reason FBA
and
Professor Jeff Paris FBA

at the British Academy on Thursday 7 November 2002

Speakers

Professor James Reason FBA
Professor of Psychology
University of Manchester

Human error can never be eliminated, but it can be managed. There are at least three models of error, and each one has its own view of causation and management. The models that will be considered and evaluated are: the plague model (error is the result of some cognitive design defect or divine curse); the person model (errors have their origins within the mental processes of the individual and thus remedial efforts should be directed at what goes on between people's ears); and the system model (errors are the consequences of 'upstream' factors relating to the task, the team, the workplace and the system at large: thus, errors are best managed by changing the conditions of hazardous work rather than by trying to change the human condition).

Professor Jeff Paris FBA
Professor of Mathematics
University of Manchester

To err is human (and computer)

In the real world we frequently have to form beliefs and draw conclusions about possible future events using only incomplete information. For example whether or not a train will operate. Doing this 'correctly' is not, I would argue, to be judged primarily by one's success in favouring what ultimately turn out to be the right answers but rather on whether one's answers are 'justified', or 'in accordance with common sense', on the basis of one's information. Whilst any hope of formalising this requirement in the complex world we inhabit is still out of sight we can at least do so for certain toy examples. And already there the conclusions are surprising. There is always just one right answer, but neither we, nor any currently feasible computer, can avoid getting it wrong some of the time.

Tea will be served at 4.45pm and the meeting will start at 5.15pm until 7.45pm, followed by a buffet supper.

You are welcome to attend the meeting free of charge, and to bring guests. Graduate students are always welcome. However, you will need to reserve seats in advance - please contact the Academy's Lectures and Meetings Organiser (020 7969 5246) to do so. All those attending are warmly encouraged to stay to supper afterwards, when there will be an opportunity to meet the speakers and continue discussion with other members of the company in an informal setting. (Supper, including wine, costs £11.00 per person).