British Academy: The UK's National Academy for the Humanities and Social Sciences

Writing the History of the Global

British Academy, 10 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1

21-22 May 2009

ABOUT THIS EVENT | PROGRAMME | BOOKING FORM

Efflorescence in Global History
Jack Goldstone (George Mason University)

Studies of the dynamics of social change in Global history have tended to focus on either 'stagnation' or 'growth,' where the latter is usually identified with capitalism or modernity. Yet this is wrong.  The true dynamics of global history are cyclical, with periods of considerable growth providing increased prosperity and wealth accumulation, driven by technical innovations and expanded market activity and urbanization, which I label 'efflorescences,' followed by periods of decay and regression.  Still, this cyclical pattern remained bounded by a limited range of per-capita incomes, thus giving a long-term net result of stagnation.  Growth only breaks out of the cycle and changes its character with the onset of engineering-driven growth, which appears first in 18th century England and then spreads globally over the next two centuries.  The great divergence is thus not marked by the onset of growth, but by a new kind of growth, propelled by entirely different processes of knowledge building and engineering than had ever occurred before.