British Academy: The UK's National Academy for the Humanities and Social Sciences

Economic futures

By Andrew Gamble FBA

The financial crash of 2007 and 2008 brought to an end a long period of growth and stability in the British economy and has sparked widespread scepticism of economic forecasting for its failure to predict the crisis.  Here, Andrew Gamble argues that the social sciences, specifically political economy, cannot predict exact future events but can offer value to policymakers by alerting them to a range of potential policies that are available, and by encouraging a deeper debate. 
It is still uncertain how the British economic recovery will play out, but the scale of the political and economic challenges ahead suggests the need for an enhanced, rather than a diminished role, for government.  Many of the problems we face are political not economic, and government action is needed to find the rules and frameworks which can enhance political co-operation at national and international levels, and maintain popular consent.

Download the full report (PDF, 3 MB) 

Economic futures is the second in the New paradigms in public policy series, chaired by Peter Taylor-Gooby FBA.

The project reviews some particularly difficult issues in public policy: climate change, multiculturalism, recession and recovery, population ageing, neighbourhood problems and the Third Sector, rebuilding democratic engagement and managing the demands of an increasingly assertive public. The series reviews current understanding of the issues, situated within academic theory-building, and discusses possible ways forward.

Working group:
Andrew Gamble FBA
Ian Gough
Tariq Modood
Anne Power
Gerry Stoker
Pat Thane FBA