An important new study of a powerful but controversial theorem of the probability calculus.
Bayes’s theorem is a tool for assessing how probable evidence makes some hypothesis. The papers in this volume consider the worth and applicability of the theorem.
Richard Swinburne sets out the philosophical issues. Elliott Sober argues that there are other criteria for assessing hypotheses. Colin Howson, Philip Dawid and John Earman consider how the theorem can be used in statistical science, in weighing evidence in criminal trials, and in assessing evidence for the occurrence of miracles. David Miller argues for the worth of the probability calculus as a tool for measuring propensities in nature rather than the strength of evidence.
The volume ends with the original paper containing the theorem, presented to the Royal Society in 1763. Readership: Scholars and students of the philosophy of mathematics and probability.
The volume is edited by Richard Swinburne, Nolloth Professor of the Philosophy of the Christian Religion, at the University of Oxford, and a Fellow of the British Academy.
The volume arises from a conference on Bayes’s Theorem held at the Academy in March 2001 — the latest symposium in the British Academy’s Philosophical Lectures series. | CONTENTS - Notes on Contributors
- Preface
- Richard Swinburne, Introduction
- Elliott Sober, Bayesianism — its Scope and Limits
- Colin Howson, Bayesianism in Statistics
- A P Dawid, Bayes’s Theorem and Weighing Evidence by Juries
- John Earman, Bayes, Hume, Price, and Miracles
- David Miller, Propensities May Satisfy Bayes’s Theorem
- Appendix: ‘An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances’ by Thomas Bayes
REVIEW “This is a high quality, concise collection of articles on the foundations of probability and statistics. ... The volume closes with an Appendix containing a very polished reproduction of Bayes’s classic ‘An Essay Towards the Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances’. The Essay still reads very well, and it should be on every probabilist’s ‘must read’ list. I feel quite comfortable saying something almost as glowing about this entire volume. I found this book very edifying and clear, and the debates and issues it encompasses are of great importance for contemporary philosophy of probability, statistics, and decision-making. I highly recommend this book to anyone with interests in these areas, and I commend Swinburne for putting together this neat little book.”
Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews |
